Average Syrians fear errant missiles will cause mass civilian casualties. The hardships of an impending assault has them worried that basic foodstuffs will dry up.
Fighters from al-Qaida’s local affiliate, known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have cleared out their bases. They believe Washington will use an attack against the regime as a pretext to strike at them as well. Their once fortified headquarters in Aleppo lies as barren as a boom-and-bust Texas oil town. Abandoning strategic positions makes it difficult to go on the offensive once the bombs cease falling.
ISIS also fears that a U.S. air campaign will turn the population against its message that the West will offer Syrians nothing. For years jihadists have preached a gospel with the core sermon that Muslims can only rely on themselves to topple a regime that is willing to unleash all the weapons in its arsenal.
ISIS is concerned that Washington’s intervention risks strengthening more moderate FSA units who have argued that cooperating with the West is the key to hoisting their flag in Damascus. Air strikes will embolden dejected FSA fighters who previously believed their leaders erred in strategy. A Syrian population exhausted by more than two years of war will be willing to bet on any stock that looks promising.
Though the immediate short term may look bleak for ISIS, its medium outlook is nothing short of bullish. Once hopes of a quick end to the war dissipate and the reality of a deadlocked conflict hits, Syrians will be as forlorn as ever. And that will lead them back into ISIS’s arms.
U.S. intervention will not shore up the FSA’s deficiencies. Many fighters are not dedicated to the cause. Numerous units are part-time criminal outfits. The FSA’s fighting skills are still mediocre.
In contrast, ISIS is well-positioned to benefit from a bombing campaign that will set the regime on the run. ISIS and other puritanical Salafist brigades such as Ahrar al-Sham remain the most combat-effective units in the conflict. ISIS is the most disciplined fighting force. And it is one of the few rebel brigades that have a countrywide presence. This allows ISIS to better coordinate across provinces.
Because the organization has such a large presence in Syria and is active on so many fronts, it often leads the charge against regime bases. This affords it the choicest arms among the spoils. As a result, ISIS has some of the most sophisticated weaponry among the rebels, ranging from tanks to anti-aircraft missiles.
Air strikes that force the regime to consolidate its forces in its strategic areas around the capital and the coastal province of Latakia will leave other regions vulnerable. ISIS is likely to descend from its strongholds in the northern provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and al-Raqqa into the central areas of Hama and Homs, where its presence is weak. This will allow the organization to strengthen its supply lines to the ultimate prize in the revolution: Damascus.
Expanding its presence on the battlefield will have other benefits for ISIS. Its social services arm is among the best funded and most organized. Reaching out to a war-savaged Syrian population in new provinces will only win it gratitude and more support.
Other internal players view a potential strike as a double-edged sword. The FSA is concerned that a bombing campaign whose goal is to punish the regime for its use of chemical weapons will not bring it to its knees. It is the jihadists, however, who are the most conflicted. They are cognizant of the windfalls the bombs will bring, but fear a military operation will weaken them as well.
Washington is bent on weakening the Syrian regime and conveying the message that the use of chemical weapons will not go unpunished. But in doing so, the U.S. will strengthen its foremost enemy: al-Qaida. And until it devises a missive that targets ISIS, the war in Syria will remain a conundrum that a limited air strike will not solve.